Morgan Stanley
  • Wealth Management
  • December 6, 2024

Banks and financials – multiple drivers aligning

Following the US election and improvements in the economic landscape, we see significant investment potential in the financial sector, particularly among the US banks.

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In our view, this marks an opportunity to benefit from a shifting outlook for the sector, which has faced challenges since the global financial crisis (GFC).

As an inherently cyclical sector we had already expressed a favourable view on US banks, driven by a positive outlook amid interest rate cuts, excess balance sheet capital, and improving capital markets. The recent US election results further strengthens our perspective, adding new dimensions to our outlook for the sector.

In addition, improving capital markets activity could also benefit other Non-Bank Financials. We recently highlighted Private Market asset managers as benefiting from capital market tailwinds and from strong multi-year secular trends, which will potentially drive increasing allocations of capital to these managers. Similarly, we see stock exchange businesses as benefiting from a pro-cyclical market environment, as well as from transformations to their business models that could drive valuation re-ratings.

US Banks - Multiple positive investment forces aligning

While we have been positive on US banks, this is a timely point to be revisiting the sector following the outcome of the US election. Alongside improving capital markets activity, we have also seen earnings upgrades in the recent reporting season, as well as attractive relative valuations within an overall favourable interest rate environment. While these positive drivers were already in place for banks, the recent US election outcome potentially offers further upside.

Improved regulatory backdrop could add another investment driver

The recent US election outcome adds further dimension to our positive view on the US Financials sector due to potential deregulation related measures. While banks have undergone an extended period of heightened regulations since the GFC, a Trump administration may potentially now go in the opposite direction, bringing an overall lighter regulatory framework. A positive from this could be more lenient bank capital requirements. In particular, Morgan Stanley views this as favourable for bank balance sheets including regarding the potential for buybacks and return of capital to shareholders. In addition, greater ‘degrees of freedom’ for mergers and acquisitions are also a potential positive.

Bank valuations have been held back, leaving headroom for a re-rating

Bank valuations remain structurally lower than the market, having trailed a rising S&P 500, to result in one of the largest price/earnings per share (P/E) gaps to the market in history. While this may have been justified in the last 10 years due to increased regulation/capital requirements and near-zero interest rates, we believe this valuation difference now runs counter to a scenario where we see less regulation, and a higher but steady rate environment, alongside rising capital markets activity.

Non-Bank Financials - Stock exchange businesses shifting business models presents an opportunity

Recent Morgan Stanley analysis highlighted a positive view on global exchange business models (Nasdaq, Euronext, London Stock exchanges). As well as being leveraged to improving capital markets as a cyclical play, these business models are engaging in business transformations not currently appreciated by the market, and which signify a move away from the traditional exchange business model. Notably, the strong and unique datasets for stock exchange businesses provide options to pivot towards an information services offering that is more data/software driven. These businesses are more recurring in nature and less transactional. In particular, the datasets could provide the opportunity to implement generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). All of this could harbor re-rating potential. In particular, the London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSEG) and Nasdaq Inc. are viewed as opportunities within the Tech Diffusion.

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